Sensitivity analysis of a real estate price dynamics model


Ozgun O., Ozbas B., BARLAS Y.

Conference on Systems Science, Management Science and System Dynamics, Shanghai, Çin, 19 - 21 Ekim 2007, ss.1625-1634 identifier

  • Yayın Türü: Bildiri / Tam Metin Bildiri
  • Basıldığı Şehir: Shanghai
  • Basıldığı Ülke: Çin
  • Sayfa Sayıları: ss.1625-1634
  • Acıbadem Mehmet Ali Aydınlar Üniversitesi Adresli: Hayır

Özet

In a system dynamics model of real estate price oscillations in Istanbul which is previously developed and analyzed by the authors, the response of the real estate prices to changes in different factors are investigated. The sensitivity of period, amplitude and mean of price oscillations to changes in some selected parameters is analyzed. Two experimental designs, namely Fractional Factorial Design and Latin Hypercube Sampling, are used to measure the sensitivity of the model. The study showed that the factors that turn out to be most significant are not necessarily the same for the two methods. But the factors and interactions found significant by both methods can be safely assumed to be the most influential ones.