Sensitivity analysis of a real estate price dynamics model


Ozgun O., Ozbas B., BARLAS Y.

Conference on Systems Science, Management Science and System Dynamics, Shanghai, China, 19 - 21 October 2007, pp.1625-1634 identifier

  • Publication Type: Conference Paper / Full Text
  • City: Shanghai
  • Country: China
  • Page Numbers: pp.1625-1634
  • Acibadem Mehmet Ali Aydinlar University Affiliated: No

Abstract

In a system dynamics model of real estate price oscillations in Istanbul which is previously developed and analyzed by the authors, the response of the real estate prices to changes in different factors are investigated. The sensitivity of period, amplitude and mean of price oscillations to changes in some selected parameters is analyzed. Two experimental designs, namely Fractional Factorial Design and Latin Hypercube Sampling, are used to measure the sensitivity of the model. The study showed that the factors that turn out to be most significant are not necessarily the same for the two methods. But the factors and interactions found significant by both methods can be safely assumed to be the most influential ones.